EUR/NOK: Downside is likely to be very gradual – SocGen

Economists at Société Générale analyze NOK outlook. 

Long NOK/SEK looks like an appealing relative value trade

Despite relatively elevated inflation, Norway still enjoys the strongest real growth and the biggest current account surplus in G10. 

Given the limited NOK market liquidity, currency resilience is more likely to stem from fundamentals than from incoming flows, and EUR/NOK downside is likely to be very gradual.

The NOK/SEK cross is strongly undershooting its relative fundamentals and we think that 0.95 was probably the bottom.  While it is still difficult to turn bullish NOK across the board (especially against the EUR), long NOK/SEK looks like an appealing relative value trade.