ISM services falling into contractionary territory could hit the Dollar – ING

The Dollar has drawn some strength from the hawkish FOMC minutes. Economists at ING analyze USD outlook ahead of US data. 

Hawkish Fed minutes raise the bar for data disappointment

Wednesday’s release of the June FOMC minutes gave very few reasons to doubt the Fed’s determination to keep raising rates. In a way, the bar for data disappointment and consequent dovish repricing may now be higher. Still, expect a hit to the Dollar if the ISM services fall into contractionary territory. 

The Dollar's reaction to today’s data may not prove particularly long-lived, especially if Friday’s payrolls continue to point to a tight jobs market and keep a post-July hike on the table.