USD/BRL: Real at a sustained high level for the time being, depreciation risks next year – Commerzbank

The Brazilian Real has shown its strong side so far this year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze BRL outlook.

Real should continue to be supported by an attractive real interest rate for the foreseeable future

The BCB's credible monetary policy argues for a prudent approach, which is why the Real should continue to be supported by an attractive real interest rate for the foreseeable future. For the time being, we, therefore, see the BRL at a sustained high level.

Towards the end of next year, however, we fear growing doubts about a continued hawkish stance as the term of the current BCB governor expires and there is speculation about a more pro-government successor. This is likely to weigh on the Real next year.

Source: Commerzbank Research