USD/JPY: Level fundamentally justified from market’s point of view is much higher than 150 – Commerzbank

It seems to be the case that, shortly after the start of FX trading in Asia, USD/JPY briefly traded above the important level of 150. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Market assumption that 150 constitutes the MOF’s line of defense can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy

The extremely small distance of the exchange rate to 150 constitutes a sign that the exchange rate fundamentally justified from the market’s point of view is much higher than 150.

If the MOF were to not intervene after a serious breach of 150, we would have to expect a very, very significant jump of the JPY exchange rates. That is not likely to be what the MOF wants. As a result, it will have no choice but to take action when a serious breach of 150 arises. The market assumption that 150 constitutes the MOF’s line of defense can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.