USD/JPY should continue to trend higher in the coming weeks – Commerzbank

USD/JPY moved back above 150 after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Statement. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

The BoJ seems reluctant to find an exit

The BoJ has definitely stuck to its line of not providing much clarity in its decisions with rather confusing communication regarding the YCC. Moreover, today's decision casts doubt on whether the BoJ is at least considering an exit from ultra-expansive monetary policy in the near future.

The central bank points out that inflation is expected to remain elevated next year, but then fall back below the 2% target in 2025 – it expects core inflation to be 1.9% in 2025. Accordingly, it continues to expect the inflation shock to be transitory. 

Given the uncertainties surrounding inflation, it is not surprising that the market perceives this as further dovish and punishes the Yen. In the absence of any signs of intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, USD/JPY should continue to trend higher in the coming weeks.