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4 Dec 2014
ECB meeting, the main event today – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team highlights the key events today, while noting the ECB meet to be the market mover.
Key Quotes
“The main event is the ECB meeting. We expect the ECB to keep the powder dry as it waits for the take-up of the TLTRO in mid-December but for Draghi to sound as dovish as he can without actually easing and indications of further easing will be followed closely.”
“The ECB's two contingencies for more easing should not have been triggered, as it still believes the current easing measures are enough to boost the balance sheet and the medium-term outlook for inflation expectations should not have worsened enough to warrant more easing.”
“Bank of England is also expected to remain on hold. Although data in the UK have generally been a bit soft and the latest inflation report from Bank of England showed a risk that inflation could fall below 1% within six months, the minutes from the latest MPC meeting still showed a 7-2 vote to keep interest rates steady.”
“In the US initial jobless claims are expected to decline after a rise last week. However, there could be some upside risk, as the ADP private employment estimate for November was below consensus. This also indicates some downside risk to our above consensus call for Friday's payrolls growth. Fed's Mester (voter, hawkish) and Brainard (voter, dovish) will both speak today.”
Key Quotes
“The main event is the ECB meeting. We expect the ECB to keep the powder dry as it waits for the take-up of the TLTRO in mid-December but for Draghi to sound as dovish as he can without actually easing and indications of further easing will be followed closely.”
“The ECB's two contingencies for more easing should not have been triggered, as it still believes the current easing measures are enough to boost the balance sheet and the medium-term outlook for inflation expectations should not have worsened enough to warrant more easing.”
“Bank of England is also expected to remain on hold. Although data in the UK have generally been a bit soft and the latest inflation report from Bank of England showed a risk that inflation could fall below 1% within six months, the minutes from the latest MPC meeting still showed a 7-2 vote to keep interest rates steady.”
“In the US initial jobless claims are expected to decline after a rise last week. However, there could be some upside risk, as the ADP private employment estimate for November was below consensus. This also indicates some downside risk to our above consensus call for Friday's payrolls growth. Fed's Mester (voter, hawkish) and Brainard (voter, dovish) will both speak today.”