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24 Dec 2014
Eurozone might see strong data in the second half of 2015 - ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at ING anticipates that the combination of lower energy costs, weaker euro and intensifying ECB stimulus may result in stronger eurozone data in the second half of 2015.
Key Quotes
“In the Eurozone the highlights will be the flash January readings of the purchasing managers’ indices, which are likely to show the index remaining fractionally above the break-even 50-level. This is consistent with only a very modest expansion of GDP and given credit growth continues to contract, as will be shown by the M3 money supply numbers, the prospects remain poor.”
“Nonetheless, the combination of lower energy costs, a weaker currency and intensifying ECB stimulus (note the ECB has cut the number of policy meetings a year from 12 to 8 so the next meeting isn’t until 22 January) should point to stronger data in the second half of the year.”
“The key political event to watch will be in Greece with the final vote on the Greek President occurring on 29 December. 180 votes are needed out of the 300 seat parliament and if Stavros Dimas fails to achieve that total then snap parliamentary elections will be called.”
“Polls currently suggest SYRIZA – the Coalition of the Radical Left – would likely be the largest party, which could heighten fears over Greece’s ongoing membership of the Eurozone given the policies advocated by that party regarding reversal of austerity measures and a huge restructuring of the government’s debts. EU politicians have already indicated such an outcome would not sit well with them.”
Key Quotes
“In the Eurozone the highlights will be the flash January readings of the purchasing managers’ indices, which are likely to show the index remaining fractionally above the break-even 50-level. This is consistent with only a very modest expansion of GDP and given credit growth continues to contract, as will be shown by the M3 money supply numbers, the prospects remain poor.”
“Nonetheless, the combination of lower energy costs, a weaker currency and intensifying ECB stimulus (note the ECB has cut the number of policy meetings a year from 12 to 8 so the next meeting isn’t until 22 January) should point to stronger data in the second half of the year.”
“The key political event to watch will be in Greece with the final vote on the Greek President occurring on 29 December. 180 votes are needed out of the 300 seat parliament and if Stavros Dimas fails to achieve that total then snap parliamentary elections will be called.”
“Polls currently suggest SYRIZA – the Coalition of the Radical Left – would likely be the largest party, which could heighten fears over Greece’s ongoing membership of the Eurozone given the policies advocated by that party regarding reversal of austerity measures and a huge restructuring of the government’s debts. EU politicians have already indicated such an outcome would not sit well with them.”