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14 Jan 2015
Recent data suggests that US might record a strong growth this year – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, anticipates US GDP growth to remain above 3% in 2015, with recent data supporting that this year US might record its strongest growth since the financial crisis.
Key Quotes
“From a global growth perspective, developments in the US remain key and the data released yesterday offered further evidence that the US economy will this year record its strongest growth rate since the financial crisis.”
“The NFIB Business Optimism survey offered a number of positive signs. The lead index jumped to 100.4 in December, the highest level since October 2006.”
“We already knew about the strong gain in hiring plans (+4ppt to 15%) but there was also a 4ppt gain in plans to increase capital spending to 29%, which was the highest level since December 2007. There was also a notable gain (+5ppt to 16%) in the now a good time to expand index highlighting a considerable gain in confidence amongst small firms in the US. Finally, the business compensation index reached January 2008 levels and the NFIB cited evidence of tightening labour markets that is likely to put further upward pressure on wages.”
“The JOLTS job openings total of 4972k was the largest since January 2001 and are up 20% from a year earlier.”
“The basis for growth north of 3% in 2015 is certainly now in place and much of this data precedes the clear net positive impact that will start to be seen by the plunge in oil prices.”
“Retail sales data, released today, should once again highlight robust underlying retail spending. As of November, control retail sales jumped 5% on a 3mth annualised basis."
"Risk aversion and fears over global growth look overdone to us when you see the robust growth underway in the US. We are dollar bullish this year but for positive US growth reasons”
Key Quotes
“From a global growth perspective, developments in the US remain key and the data released yesterday offered further evidence that the US economy will this year record its strongest growth rate since the financial crisis.”
“The NFIB Business Optimism survey offered a number of positive signs. The lead index jumped to 100.4 in December, the highest level since October 2006.”
“We already knew about the strong gain in hiring plans (+4ppt to 15%) but there was also a 4ppt gain in plans to increase capital spending to 29%, which was the highest level since December 2007. There was also a notable gain (+5ppt to 16%) in the now a good time to expand index highlighting a considerable gain in confidence amongst small firms in the US. Finally, the business compensation index reached January 2008 levels and the NFIB cited evidence of tightening labour markets that is likely to put further upward pressure on wages.”
“The JOLTS job openings total of 4972k was the largest since January 2001 and are up 20% from a year earlier.”
“The basis for growth north of 3% in 2015 is certainly now in place and much of this data precedes the clear net positive impact that will start to be seen by the plunge in oil prices.”
“Retail sales data, released today, should once again highlight robust underlying retail spending. As of November, control retail sales jumped 5% on a 3mth annualised basis."
"Risk aversion and fears over global growth look overdone to us when you see the robust growth underway in the US. We are dollar bullish this year but for positive US growth reasons”