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2 Apr 2015
USD/CAD rangebound near-term – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, the pair could attempt a consolidation pattern in the near term.
Key Quotes
“Unlike the U.S., Canada will not release employment until April 10th; however the broad USD and developments in oil markets are major drivers of CAD in the current environment”.
“Yesterday’s slowing in U.S. production is encouraging for NA priced oil and CAD”.
“Our base case is that USDCAD trades within a range during the near term as it is contained by the conflicting forces of some recovery in oil prices, offset by a slower USD strengthening trajectory and the risks around the BoC”.
“The bias is downside risk, but signals are not strong and somewhat conflicted, which suggests more of a range bound environment in the near‐term”.
“Support comes in at the 50‐day MA at 1.2558, but it recently closed below with no follow through, so it would take more than a simple break of the 50‐day to generate any excitement. Near‐term resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1.2784”.
Key Quotes
“Unlike the U.S., Canada will not release employment until April 10th; however the broad USD and developments in oil markets are major drivers of CAD in the current environment”.
“Yesterday’s slowing in U.S. production is encouraging for NA priced oil and CAD”.
“Our base case is that USDCAD trades within a range during the near term as it is contained by the conflicting forces of some recovery in oil prices, offset by a slower USD strengthening trajectory and the risks around the BoC”.
“The bias is downside risk, but signals are not strong and somewhat conflicted, which suggests more of a range bound environment in the near‐term”.
“Support comes in at the 50‐day MA at 1.2558, but it recently closed below with no follow through, so it would take more than a simple break of the 50‐day to generate any excitement. Near‐term resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1.2784”.