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14 Apr 2015
China Q1 15 GDP preview – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Tim Condon of ING, notes a weaker-than-expected China Q1 15 GDP data might be positive for financial markets by raising expectations of PBOC easing.
Key Quotes
“1Q15 GDP and the March activity data – industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales – are due tomorrow at 10am local time. The consensus forecast for GDP growth is 7% (prior 7.3%).”
“The higher frequency data show a loss of growth momentum in early 2015. Similar to the US, weaker-than-expected GDP data might be positive for financial markets because of its effect on consensus forecasts for PBOC easing.”
“The consensus forecast for FAI growth is 13.9% YoY YTD, unchanged from February. We will look at the housing data. We think hitting the 7% full-year GDP growth target depends on reducing the drag from the residential property sector. Policy already has turned positive and we expect transactions to pick up first, followed by firmer home prices, followed by housing starts.”
Key Quotes
“1Q15 GDP and the March activity data – industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales – are due tomorrow at 10am local time. The consensus forecast for GDP growth is 7% (prior 7.3%).”
“The higher frequency data show a loss of growth momentum in early 2015. Similar to the US, weaker-than-expected GDP data might be positive for financial markets because of its effect on consensus forecasts for PBOC easing.”
“The consensus forecast for FAI growth is 13.9% YoY YTD, unchanged from February. We will look at the housing data. We think hitting the 7% full-year GDP growth target depends on reducing the drag from the residential property sector. Policy already has turned positive and we expect transactions to pick up first, followed by firmer home prices, followed by housing starts.”