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14 Oct 2015
AUD: Australian unemployment rate to fall to 6.1% in September – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Adam Boyton, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that Thursday sees the release of the September labour force data and we are looking for a better than market outcome (+25k on employment and the unemployment rate to print at 6.1%).
Key Quotes
“As always, the monthly labour data are volatile and any economist that forecasts it is humbled – usually sooner rather than later. Still, going into the number we note that the market has a rate cut essentially fully priced for February. That means, in our view, that a weak print may well be needed to justify market pricing.”
“Finally, while there has been some interest in a major bank increasing mortgage rates today, this simply goes into the mix (as does the four year high in the employment component of the NAB business survey for that matter). On a November rate cut, it would be very strange for the RBA deliver a knee-jerk rate cut to (likely more than fully) offset something that should assist it in achieving its macro-prudential goals.”
Key Quotes
“As always, the monthly labour data are volatile and any economist that forecasts it is humbled – usually sooner rather than later. Still, going into the number we note that the market has a rate cut essentially fully priced for February. That means, in our view, that a weak print may well be needed to justify market pricing.”
“Finally, while there has been some interest in a major bank increasing mortgage rates today, this simply goes into the mix (as does the four year high in the employment component of the NAB business survey for that matter). On a November rate cut, it would be very strange for the RBA deliver a knee-jerk rate cut to (likely more than fully) offset something that should assist it in achieving its macro-prudential goals.”