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14 Dec 2015
Lot less covering of EUR shorts in the wake of the ECB meeting - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) - Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed a lot less covering of EUR shorts than seemed likely in the wake of the ECB meeting which disappointed so many investors.
Key Quotes
“Leveraged funds reduced their net shorts only from -156.7k contracts to -139.4k. This is still a face value of –EUR17.4bn. This snapshot is taken as at the NY close on 8 Dec, when EURUSD was around 1.09 so some further short-covering will have occurred since then. Leveraged funds trimmed their AUD shorts again, from -12.9k to -5.2k, the closest to square since Oct 2014. Specs’ yen shorts increased slightly over the week to -83k.”
“Spot USD/CNY closed higher for the sixth straight day, at 6.4553, with nervousness over yuan depreciation reinforced by the CFETS announcement that they would launch a trade-weighted CNY. Both spot and 12mth USD/CNY NDFs are comfortably above the August highs so nervousness is high to start the week. USD/majors weakened a little while spot yuan was closed but recently this hasn’t mattered much. Most likely the USD/CNY fixing will be in the 6.4520-40 area, a long way north of Friday’s 6.4358 and keeping CNY and CNH under pressure from the open.”
Key Quotes
“Leveraged funds reduced their net shorts only from -156.7k contracts to -139.4k. This is still a face value of –EUR17.4bn. This snapshot is taken as at the NY close on 8 Dec, when EURUSD was around 1.09 so some further short-covering will have occurred since then. Leveraged funds trimmed their AUD shorts again, from -12.9k to -5.2k, the closest to square since Oct 2014. Specs’ yen shorts increased slightly over the week to -83k.”
“Spot USD/CNY closed higher for the sixth straight day, at 6.4553, with nervousness over yuan depreciation reinforced by the CFETS announcement that they would launch a trade-weighted CNY. Both spot and 12mth USD/CNY NDFs are comfortably above the August highs so nervousness is high to start the week. USD/majors weakened a little while spot yuan was closed but recently this hasn’t mattered much. Most likely the USD/CNY fixing will be in the 6.4520-40 area, a long way north of Friday’s 6.4358 and keeping CNY and CNH under pressure from the open.”