Back
18 Dec 2015
Fed's innings still a long way to go - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ noted that the Fed has tightened and markets have taken it in their stride, no doubt buoyed by the expectation further tightening will be gradual and the overwhelming signalling in advance.
Key Quotes:
"The dot plot shows a median outlook of 1.375% at the end of next year compared to market expectations of about 0.85%. So where are the cracks? Capital is still being repriced.
The repricing is gradual but set to occur nonetheless. Valuations will need to adjust. Each nudge higher in the cost of capital will bring economic fundamentals and growth as drivers more to the fore as opposed to liquidity.
It’s just a question of timing. Inflation still needs to show up to the party amidst an environment of limited pricing power across the labour market. We have a stronger USD (undermines earnings), falling commodity prices (rekindling concerns about global growth), junk status in some resource producers (worse than pre Lehmans), and continued risks across emerging markets, particularly in regard to devaluation prospects (the renminbi for instance). But those are next year’s stories. For now, the Fed has a run on the board and hasn’t lost a wicket. But the innings has a long way to go."
Key Quotes:
"The dot plot shows a median outlook of 1.375% at the end of next year compared to market expectations of about 0.85%. So where are the cracks? Capital is still being repriced.
The repricing is gradual but set to occur nonetheless. Valuations will need to adjust. Each nudge higher in the cost of capital will bring economic fundamentals and growth as drivers more to the fore as opposed to liquidity.
It’s just a question of timing. Inflation still needs to show up to the party amidst an environment of limited pricing power across the labour market. We have a stronger USD (undermines earnings), falling commodity prices (rekindling concerns about global growth), junk status in some resource producers (worse than pre Lehmans), and continued risks across emerging markets, particularly in regard to devaluation prospects (the renminbi for instance). But those are next year’s stories. For now, the Fed has a run on the board and hasn’t lost a wicket. But the innings has a long way to go."