CNH to weaken against JPY but may gain in others – ANZ

Irene Cheung, Senior FX Strategist, suggests that as China undergoes FX reforms and puts more emphasis on the RMB basket, they expect CNH to underperform some currencies in the basket whilst outperforming others.

Key Quotes

“We look at six key CNH crosses: EUR/CNH, JPY/CNH, AUD/CNH, NZD/CNH, SGD/CNH, and TWD/CNH.

We expect CNH to lose ground against the JPY and EUR (over the longer term). However, most of the other crosses appear toppish and may retrace lower (ie CNH to outperform) in the near term.

Sellers of the crosses could take advantage of positive forward points. With FX volatility still at elevated levels, options structures remain a way to help cheapen the cost of hedging.”