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25 Nov 2013
Flash: Specs short Yen at extreme levels, highest since 2007 - TDS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - An extension of recent trends was the predominant theme among specs on the IMM, notes Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TDS, with the accumulation of Yen shorts reaching extreme levels, Osborne adds.
Key Quotes
"Shrinking EUR long positions and the further momentum in the short JPY trade both continued to add to the greater USD exposure among investors. As of Tuesday, November 19th the implied USD long position grew to USD15.7bn, up from USD13.3bn in the week prior."
"Investors aggressively added to JPY short positions for another week, as the currency continued its persistent selloff since late October. Net short positioning was boosted to 112..2k contracts (from 95.1k), which is extreme by any measure. In term of net contracts that’s the largest short since July 2007, and in terms of value (USD14.0bn) it’s the largest short since December 2012 (when USD/JPY was near 85). Such extreme positioning is certainly at risk of a short squeeze with the right trigger."
"EUR longs were slashed for another week despite the more neutral price action in the Single currency through Tuesday. Net long contracts were cut to 8.9k, from 16.8k last week (and 70.6k in late October)."
"Commodity currency positioning remained fairly neutral as of Tuesday, with investors continuing to prefer the NZD over the AUD and CAD. The net AUD short was held steady at 35.8k contracts, and the net CAD short was held at 16.3k. Net NZD longs nudged higher to 12.5k, up slightly from 10.4k."
"Positioning among the remaining majors was little changed as well, with the near neutral CHF position holding at +3.7k contracts, while the small GBP net short was trimmed mildly to 1.7k from 9.3k."
Key Quotes
"Shrinking EUR long positions and the further momentum in the short JPY trade both continued to add to the greater USD exposure among investors. As of Tuesday, November 19th the implied USD long position grew to USD15.7bn, up from USD13.3bn in the week prior."
"Investors aggressively added to JPY short positions for another week, as the currency continued its persistent selloff since late October. Net short positioning was boosted to 112..2k contracts (from 95.1k), which is extreme by any measure. In term of net contracts that’s the largest short since July 2007, and in terms of value (USD14.0bn) it’s the largest short since December 2012 (when USD/JPY was near 85). Such extreme positioning is certainly at risk of a short squeeze with the right trigger."
"EUR longs were slashed for another week despite the more neutral price action in the Single currency through Tuesday. Net long contracts were cut to 8.9k, from 16.8k last week (and 70.6k in late October)."
"Commodity currency positioning remained fairly neutral as of Tuesday, with investors continuing to prefer the NZD over the AUD and CAD. The net AUD short was held steady at 35.8k contracts, and the net CAD short was held at 16.3k. Net NZD longs nudged higher to 12.5k, up slightly from 10.4k."
"Positioning among the remaining majors was little changed as well, with the near neutral CHF position holding at +3.7k contracts, while the small GBP net short was trimmed mildly to 1.7k from 9.3k."