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5 May 2016
Key events ahead - Westpac
Analysts at Westpac noted that Australia Mar retail sales are due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK and offer the rest of key events coming up.
Key Quotes:
"Westpac and the median forecast are both at 0.3% m/m after a flat print in Feb. Consumer sentiment softened a little in Mar and further in Apr. The early timing of Easter may give some boost though the ABS attempts to adjust for this and an unusually warm autumn may be a negative for some segments. Q1 CPI suggests that much of the weakness seen early this year is due to falling prices, the detail suggesting a decline in retail prices over the quarter of 0.2% compared to a 0.7% rise in Q4. This brings Westpac’s forecast for Q1 real retail sales to 0.8%q/q; consensus is 0.7%.
Australia’s trade deficit averaged a hefty –AUD3.5bn over the 3 months to Feb, -AUD3.2bn over 12 months. The bounce in commodity prices since Jan however should finally show up in the March data. Westpac looks for the deficit to narrow sharply from –$3.4bn in Feb to -2.3bn, with export revenues expected to be up 3.7% ($0.9bn). The iron ore price surge is obvious support but there should also be a rise in LNG and coal export volumes. Imports are expected to have fallen -0.6%, with a stronger AUD trimming prices overall but oil prices bouncing.
In Asia, Taiwan and Philippines both release Apr CPI. We also see China Apr Caixin services PMI, which is unlikely to move markets. The US calendar is low key ahead of payrolls though we will hear from St. Louis Fed president Bullard (centrist, voter), who is usually very quotable."
Key Quotes:
"Westpac and the median forecast are both at 0.3% m/m after a flat print in Feb. Consumer sentiment softened a little in Mar and further in Apr. The early timing of Easter may give some boost though the ABS attempts to adjust for this and an unusually warm autumn may be a negative for some segments. Q1 CPI suggests that much of the weakness seen early this year is due to falling prices, the detail suggesting a decline in retail prices over the quarter of 0.2% compared to a 0.7% rise in Q4. This brings Westpac’s forecast for Q1 real retail sales to 0.8%q/q; consensus is 0.7%.
Australia’s trade deficit averaged a hefty –AUD3.5bn over the 3 months to Feb, -AUD3.2bn over 12 months. The bounce in commodity prices since Jan however should finally show up in the March data. Westpac looks for the deficit to narrow sharply from –$3.4bn in Feb to -2.3bn, with export revenues expected to be up 3.7% ($0.9bn). The iron ore price surge is obvious support but there should also be a rise in LNG and coal export volumes. Imports are expected to have fallen -0.6%, with a stronger AUD trimming prices overall but oil prices bouncing.
In Asia, Taiwan and Philippines both release Apr CPI. We also see China Apr Caixin services PMI, which is unlikely to move markets. The US calendar is low key ahead of payrolls though we will hear from St. Louis Fed president Bullard (centrist, voter), who is usually very quotable."