Market Wrap: Markets quiet on US holiday - Westpac

Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at Westpac, summarizes Monday's action, noting that markets were quiet due to the US holiday, with sentiment remaining firm as the S&P500 futures rose 0.2% and the US dollar was slightly weaker.

Market Wrap

Interest rates: The US treasury market was closed but futures traded, indicating 10yr yields remained unchanged at around 1.44%. Market pricing of the Fed firmed slightly, implying a 5% chance of a rate hike in September and a 15% chance by December.

Currencies:  The US dollar fell by around 0.2%. EUR rose from 1.1130 to 1.1160 via 1.1098. GBP is little changed at 1.3295. USD/JPY slipped from 102.80 to 102.50. AUD rose from 0.7180 to 0.7545, shrugging off the weekend’s election result. Outperformer NZD rose from 0.7180 to 0.7241. AUD/NZD fell from 1.0465 to 1.0415.  

Economic Wrap

No data to report (US on holiday).

Economic Event Risks Today

NZ: The NZIER quarterly business opinion survey will be important for its latest reading on inflation expectations, which elsewhere remain depressed. Also out is the QV house price report for June. Tonight there’s a GDT dairy auction, futures-based models currently indicating a 2% rise in WMP.

Australia: RBA decision. Brexit will figure in the deliberations but is unlikely to tip the balance. Considerable uncertainty and a looming update on Australian inflation will be the focus for the Board.

Retail sales. Sales slowed to a 0.2% pace in April, the result of weak price inflation and patchy demand. May should see stronger growth, circa 0.4%, aided by improved confidence in the economy and labour market.

Trade balance.  Apr saw a narrowing of the deficit to $1.6bn, well below the $3.0bn deficits of 2015. A modest widening is expected in May to $1.8bn. Fuel and a lower dollar support imports; with exports aided by prices, ex iron ore.

Also due are service PMIs for Asia (including China) and Europe.