NFP not expected to boost significantly September rate hike odds  - BBH

According to analysts from Brown Brother Harriman, do not expect that today’s NFP number to significantly boost market odds of a Federal Reserve hike in September.

Key Quotes:

“The underemployment rate rose to 9.7% from 9.6%, which may have been the only poor element of the report.”

“The renewed vigor in the US labor market is helpful, but it does not address the main headwinds on the US economy that have led to sub-2% annualized pace of growth over the past nine months.

“We suspect that the strength of the labor market undergirds the confidence of Fed policymakers.  Real final demand (GDP excluding inventories and trade) appears to be understood as a more reliable guide.”  

“We do not expect today's jobs report to significantly boost the market odds of a Fed move in September. There are too many moving pieces, and the meeting is not until late September.  Still, the data may limit how far the dollar will fall after appreciating (on a real trade-weighted basis) for the past three months.”