US: Poised to snap a three-quarter period of sub-2% growth - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US economy is poised to snap a three-quarter period of sub-2% growth. 

Key Quotes

“The NY Fed's GDP tracker was flat at 2.8%.  The Atlanta Fed's tracker is at 3.5%,  little changed from its first estimate for Q3 on August 3 of 3.6%.  It was taken down to 3.2% after the construction spending and manufacturing ISM, but marked higher after the trade figures before the weekend that pointed to a smaller drag from net exports. 

The most important takeaway is that the composition of growth is changing this quarter.  Consumption will pullback after its second strongest quarter since the crisis.  It looks as if government and investment will improve over the second quarter.  The wild card is inventories. It is difficult to have much confidence with the limited data that is currently available, but it looks like the inventory headwind may still be there, even if diminished.”