NFP Preview – Goldman Sachs

Economists at Goldman Sachs offer insights on what to expect from the upcoming US payrolls data, which will be a key determinant to seal in a Fed rate hike next week.

Key Headlines:

Goldman Sachs are expecting +215K

Private jobs gain +200K

For the unemployment rate, GS is looking for 4.7%

Average hourly earnings, expecting +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y

Favorable weather effects ... unseasonably warm weather and relatively limited snowfall, both of which are likely to boost payrolls in weather-sensitive industries

Such a pattern is associated with strong growth in weather-sensitive industries, including construction, retail trade, leisure & hospitality

The strong hiring trends indicated in the ADP employment report

A further drop in jobless claims to their lowest levels since the 1970s