UK: Second estimate Q2 GDP preview – HSBC

The HSBC research team published a brief preview of the UK’s second estimate of Q2 GDP report, which will be reported at 0830GMT later today.

Key Quotes:

“The ONS's initial estimate showed GDP growing by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 - a slight uptick from Q1's 0.2%.

Subsequent updates to the Q2 industrial production and construction numbers have been minor so we do not expect GDP to be revised in the second estimate.

The forthcoming release will contain the first estimates of Q2 expenditure. The monthly goods trade numbers suggest that net trade might make a positive growth contribution, while consumer spending is likely to be weak, given the squeeze from higher inflation.

The ONS's preliminary GDP print embodied an initial estimate for June services growth of 0.3% m-o-m. That helped deliver Q2 services growth of a respectable 0.5% q-o-q. We see no reason to aim off these estimates for the full IoS data release.

A more granular breakdown of the data might offer insights, particularly with regard to momentum going into Q3.”