AUD/USD has retraced 50% of Dec-Jan rally

• Aussie is consolidating around 50% Fib retracement
• Focus on the AU-US yield differential.

Yesterday's 91 pip sell-off pushed the AUD/USD down to 0.7818 - 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 0.7501 (December low) to 0.8136 (January high).

The currency pair fell further to 0.7811 in Asian session today and was last seen trading at 0.7830 levels.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) fourth-quarter business confidence came in at 6 index points compared to previous quarter's reading of 8. Meanwhile, business conditions rose to 24 - its highest since early 2008.

However, the mild recovery in the Aussie is likely due to signs of bullish price RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart.

Further gains could be seen if the 10-year Aussie-US bond yield spread rises sharply in the AUD positive manner. As of writing, the spread stands at 4 basis points. A drop into the negative (inversion) could push the AUD/USD pair below 0.78.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to create lower lows, but the RSI isn't following suit (bullish divergence). So, a corrective rally to 0.7863 (4h 5-MA) could be seen. If breached, the pair could test supply around 0.79 (zero level) and 4h 200-MA of 0.7910.

On the other hand, a failure to hold above 0.78 (psychological level) would add credence to the bearish 50-MA and 100-MA crossover on 4-hour chart and open doors for 0.7773 (100-day MA) and 0.7750 (200-day MA).