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13 Mar 2014
Asia Recap: Rush to bid the Antipodean currencies
FXStreet (Bali) - AUD and NZD were the masters of the board, both enjoying strong gains as improved sentiment from the US session extended in Asia, with RBNZ rate hike and upbeat Australian jobs to blame.
AUD/USD, which had an impressive recover off 0.8923 low in Europe to rise towards 0.8990 by US close, saw steady bids in the transition from US into Tokyo, to the point of breaking the strong 0.9010 resistance even ahead of the Aus jobs report as sellers from Wed's China headlines run to the exits.
Then came the Australian jobs report, with the result being a huge positive pay-back from what had been previous months of disappointment in the employment sector. Not only 47.3k new jobs were added, but 80.5k were full-time, while part-time decreased by 33.2k. The pair was bid to the boots on the upbeat release, moving from just above 0.9010 level all the way to hit 0.9070 resistance, where sellers showed up.
One important addition to make though, is that the Australian Bureau of Statistics cautioned that new jobs panel contributed to change in February figures of a 37% contribution to lift in employment.
According to the Bureau: “The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.”
AAP notes: "Every month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) drops one eighth of the households in its survey sample and adds a group of households to replace it. In today’s release, the incoming group had a higher proportion of people in the labour force, either employed or unemployed, and a lower proportion not active in the labour market."
AAP adds: “If you look at the original figures referred to by the ABS – that is, not seasonally adjusted – they showed employment rose by 139,500. It would have risen by 37 per cent, or about 52,000, less than that if not for this statistical effect. Apply that reduction to the seasonally adjusted figures and you end up with a monthly change of about nothing, and more likely a marginal fall.
Meanwhile, the NZD/USD also had a majestic rise, breaking above the 0.8540 resistance (Oct 2013 high) to now target 0.8585 (April 2013 high). The RBNZ rate hike and the hawkish rhetoric in Governor Wheeler's statement, saying rates may go up as much as 125 basis points this year alone and over 200 basis points by end of 2015, was the main catalyst that satisfied buyers.
The USD/JPY held marginally above the 102.60/70 support, with topside attempts half-hearted and well capped below the 103.00. There was some short-lived intraday volatility around the fix but all well within Wednesday's familiar levels with the Nikkei (+0.35%) failing to encourage additional flows. The flat span A cloud on the daily around 103.00 seems to continue being a magnet for prices, suggesting further consolidation.
The EUR/USD, also saw an off-the-cuff spike late in Asia, possibly stop-loss driven, as wires offered no apparent catalyst for the 1.39-1.3940 run up. Gold also expnaded to the upside, recording a new 6-month high of $1,373.00. The rest of currencies kept familiar levels, so nothing to report there.
Main headlines in Asia
RBNZ rises rates to 2.75%, starts adjustment
RBNZ offers a significant positive surprise - Westpac
Japan's wage negotiations positive for USDJPY - Nomura
RBNZ’s Wheeler: Says interest rate differentials are increasing
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation down to 2.1% in February from previous 2.3%
Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) beat forecasts (7%) in January: Actual (13.4%)
Australian jobs explode higher, full-time employment up over 80k!
Chinese Premier Li reassures market debt risks under control
AUD/USD: Break above 0.9070/80 targets 0.9130 high
AUD/USD, which had an impressive recover off 0.8923 low in Europe to rise towards 0.8990 by US close, saw steady bids in the transition from US into Tokyo, to the point of breaking the strong 0.9010 resistance even ahead of the Aus jobs report as sellers from Wed's China headlines run to the exits.
Then came the Australian jobs report, with the result being a huge positive pay-back from what had been previous months of disappointment in the employment sector. Not only 47.3k new jobs were added, but 80.5k were full-time, while part-time decreased by 33.2k. The pair was bid to the boots on the upbeat release, moving from just above 0.9010 level all the way to hit 0.9070 resistance, where sellers showed up.
One important addition to make though, is that the Australian Bureau of Statistics cautioned that new jobs panel contributed to change in February figures of a 37% contribution to lift in employment.
According to the Bureau: “The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.”
AAP notes: "Every month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) drops one eighth of the households in its survey sample and adds a group of households to replace it. In today’s release, the incoming group had a higher proportion of people in the labour force, either employed or unemployed, and a lower proportion not active in the labour market."
AAP adds: “If you look at the original figures referred to by the ABS – that is, not seasonally adjusted – they showed employment rose by 139,500. It would have risen by 37 per cent, or about 52,000, less than that if not for this statistical effect. Apply that reduction to the seasonally adjusted figures and you end up with a monthly change of about nothing, and more likely a marginal fall.
Meanwhile, the NZD/USD also had a majestic rise, breaking above the 0.8540 resistance (Oct 2013 high) to now target 0.8585 (April 2013 high). The RBNZ rate hike and the hawkish rhetoric in Governor Wheeler's statement, saying rates may go up as much as 125 basis points this year alone and over 200 basis points by end of 2015, was the main catalyst that satisfied buyers.
The USD/JPY held marginally above the 102.60/70 support, with topside attempts half-hearted and well capped below the 103.00. There was some short-lived intraday volatility around the fix but all well within Wednesday's familiar levels with the Nikkei (+0.35%) failing to encourage additional flows. The flat span A cloud on the daily around 103.00 seems to continue being a magnet for prices, suggesting further consolidation.
The EUR/USD, also saw an off-the-cuff spike late in Asia, possibly stop-loss driven, as wires offered no apparent catalyst for the 1.39-1.3940 run up. Gold also expnaded to the upside, recording a new 6-month high of $1,373.00. The rest of currencies kept familiar levels, so nothing to report there.
Main headlines in Asia
RBNZ rises rates to 2.75%, starts adjustment
RBNZ offers a significant positive surprise - Westpac
Japan's wage negotiations positive for USDJPY - Nomura
RBNZ’s Wheeler: Says interest rate differentials are increasing
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation down to 2.1% in February from previous 2.3%
Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) beat forecasts (7%) in January: Actual (13.4%)
Australian jobs explode higher, full-time employment up over 80k!
Chinese Premier Li reassures market debt risks under control
AUD/USD: Break above 0.9070/80 targets 0.9130 high