Canada: CPI and retail sales ahead - NBF

Next week, economic data to be released in Canada, includes CPI, retail sales and manufacturing shipments. According to National Bank of Canada’s analysts, the CPI could show a decline of 0.1% in June. 

Key Quotes:

“A lot of attention will be on June’s consumer price index. Gasoline prices dropped 2.2% in the month, a very weak showing compared with historical averages. That result may lead to a 0.1% monthly decline for headline CPI which, in turn, could translate into a 2.2% increase on a 12-month basis (unchanged from May). The rise in core prices, meanwhile, could have accelerated in June after the recent weakness, reflecting an economy running above potential. This could allow the annual rate of CPI-common to remain unchanged at 1.9%.”

“Both headline and ex-auto retail sales likely bounced back in May, helped by strong auto sales and higher gasoline prices. Also in May, manufacturing shipments may have recorded a second consecutive monthly decline, in line with the slide observed in exports of factory goods. We’ll also keep an eye on the publication of international securities transactions for May.”