UK: Unemployment rate likely to fall to a new multi-decade low of 3.7% – TD Securities

According to analysts at TD Securities, August may see one of the final gasps of strength for the UK’s labour market, as they are looking for the unemployment rate to fall to a new multi-decade low of 3.7% (mkt 3.8%).

Key Quotes

“We do look for the strength in job growth to slow in the coming months; the one consistent message from all three UK PMIs for September was that employment has started contracting across all sectors of the economy.”

“For wage growth, we look for headline wages to hold steady at 4.0% y/y, and ex-bonus wages to also come in unchanged at 3.8% y/y. Wage growth is likely to remain elevated for a while, as they tend to follow growth and labour market trends only with a lag.”