USD/JPY: Sustained break of the 104.19 July low to reassert the downtrend – Credit Suisse

USD/JPY ideally holds below 104.88 for a clear break of the July low at 104.19, with next support seen at 103.43, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

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Key quotes

“USD/JPY was unable to sustain its move below the 104.19 July low on Monday but despite the sharp recovery in the afternoon the market has not cleared any resistance of note and we maintain our bearish outlook.”

“Support is seen at 104.37 initially, then 104.19, with a move below 104.00 needed to reassert downward momentum again with support then seen next at 103.43 – the 78.6% retracement of the March rally – and with the “measured objective” from the bearish continuation pattern seen at 103.14 and with the broader risk seen for a move back below 102.00.”

“Immediate resistance is seen at 104.63, then 104.83/88, which we look to continue to ideally cap. Above which can see a deeper recovery back to the 13 -day average and price resistance at 105.12/25, but with fresh sellers expected here.”