USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee recaptures 100-DMA amid Feb RBI rate hike bets

• USD/INR snaps a four-day winning streak, eases from five-week lows.
• Indian rupee buyers emerge near 75.30, as the USD eases across the board.
• 50-DMA at 74.90 eyed if USD/INR corrects further ahead of US inflation.

USD/INR has returned to the red zone after kicking off February on a positive note, as sellers continue to lurk just below the $75 mark.

The pullback in the spot could be associated with the ongoing corrective decline in the US dollar across its main peers, as the Fed angst subsides ahead of the key employment data.

Moreover, markets expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to start the tightening cycle from this month, offering some support to the Indian rupee bulls.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect RBI to start normalization with reverse repo hike in February, followed by repo rate hikes from April.

This comes as they see “India’s budget math largely reasonable with potential upside for tax revenue estimates.“

On the contrary, Oxford Economics noted that India’s uneven recovery requires more targeted support in short term.

Markets now look forward to the US ADP jobs data and the oil-price action for fresh trading impetus on the pair.

USD/INR: Technical outlook

At the time of writing, the spot is pressuring lows near 74.70, posting moderate losses on the day.

In doing so, the spot has breached the 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 74.71, which was the previous resistance.

If the downtick gathers steam, then USD/INR could see a fresh drop towards the mildly bullish 21-DMA at 74.46.

Further south, the horizontal 200-DMA support at 74.27 will challenge the bullish commitments.

USD/INR: Daily chart

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, is sitting just above the midline, suggesting that the downside could be limited.

Should the buyers regain control Tuesday’s high of 74.86 will be retested, allowing for the further upside towards the 75 level. The ascending 50-DMA hangs around that price zone.

Recapturing the latter is critical to initiating a meaningful recovery towards the January highs of 75.34.

USD/INR: Additional levels