USD/TRY stays above 14.00 as Russia-Ukraine tussles, Turkish politics favor bulls ahead of US NFP
- USD/TRY remains firmer for the fourth consecutive day, mildly bid around one-week high.
- Turkish President Erdogan seems to have fired another Minister, this time its Agriculture and Forestry’s turn.
- Russia’s shelling on Ukrainian nuclear plant propels fresh risk-aversion wave.
- US jobs report, geopolitical developments will be crucial for near-term directions.
USD/TRY grinds higher around weekly top, up 0.20% intraday near $14.15 heading into Friday’s European session.
The Turkish lira (TRY) pair witnesses a double-barrel attack as Russia-Ukraine fears join another change of Ministry leader in Turkey. That said, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone adds to upside momentum that portrays the four-day winning streak of the stated pair.
Russia’s shelling on Ukraine’s nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia poured pour cold water on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks that agreed on the safe passage of Kyiv’s civilians the previous day. On the same line were headlines from the UK Times suggesting that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days.
At home, “Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan appointed Vahit Kirisci, a former member of parliament from his AK Party, as Agriculture and Forestry Minister, the Official Gazette said on Friday,” per Reuters. The news adds, “Former Agriculture and Forestry Minister Bekir Pakdemirli resigned from the position, the Gazette said, without providing a reason for the resignation.”
Contrary to Turkish President Erdogan, Fed Chair Jerome Powell backed rate-hikes during his testimony on Thursday. The market implications from Powell’s comments were larger as the CME’s FedWatch Tool marks around 95% odds favoring the same rate-lift in the next month’s Fed meeting.
Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop around 0.50% on a day whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields mark near five pips of a downside to 1.80% by the press time. The risk-off mood underpins the US dollar’s safe-haven demand ahead of today’s key US jobs report for February.
Technical analysis
Given the USD/TRY pair’s sustained trading beyond the tops marked during November 2021 and January 2022, surrounding 13.95, the buyers are likely advancing towards the previous week’s top near 14.66.